More than 300 drones and missiles were launched from Iran’s territory out of which more than 120 were ballistic missiles and about 30 cruise missiles. But as per the reports from the Israel side about 99% of these were intercepted in air and destroyed in the air. This was all due to the efficient defense system of Israel.

Reason behind the recent attack by Iran:

As per Iran’s Mission to U.N. “Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus”. They added more by saying that the action would be much more severe if Israel made another mistake.

Iran launched the attack as a response to the attack on its consulate by Israeli strike in Syria on April 1, 2024.

The above cited were the reasons behind the latest attack but both countries have a long history of shadow wars:

1982: Lebanon was invaded by Israel. Following this, the Revolutionary Guards set up Hezbollah.

1983: Hezbollah used suicide bombers to attack and later on Israeli forces withdrew from Lebanon.

2006: Israel fights a month-long battle with Hezbollah militants.

2020: Israel welcomes the actions taken by the U.S. in which Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani was assassinated.

2022: A joint pledge by the U.S. president and Israeli prime minister to deny Iran’s nuclear arms program.

2024: The suspected attack on Iran’s embassy by Israel in Damascus in which 13 were killed including 7 generals.

Iran’s stance is quite clear with a statement in which it is retreated that the actions would be severe if Israel mistakes retaliation. They also stated that the matter is concluded for now but will strike severely if Israel retaliates.

But the relations between the two were not as it was today, even Iran was one of the first countries to recognize Israel after its formation in 1948, but the diplomatic ties and relations worsened after 1979.

Possibilities:

Now there are two possibilities which include:

1. Israel will not attack Iran and will not re-escalate. But there are fewer chances of this possibility as per the statements from Israel's defense forces, they may plan a big attack on Iran. But if Israel did not attack then the situation would calm down. This is the advice from most world leaders to Israel to stay calm.

2. Another possibility is that Israel will launch a direct attack on Iran which will lead to severe tension in the Middle East region. As warned by Iran if any country will help or open its airspace for the attack on Iran, Iran will attack that country.

If Israel attacks Iran then the U.S. will have to interfere in the war and have to support Israel which may lead to the entry of other countries and most probably the entry of Russia on Iran’s side will worsen the situation.

Now the ball is completely in the U.S. court, if they give a green signal to Israel for the attack it may lead to large-scale war with the entry of many big nations.

According to Iran, they have attacked Israel in self-defense followed by the attack of Israel's defense forces in the Damascus on Iranian Consulate, and the charter of U.N. provides it a chance to safeguard itself.

Economic Impact and India’s concerns:

India had a lot of big investments in both countries, even the Strait of Hormuz has been an important trade route between Asia and Europe and if the tensions increase it will affect world trade and it directly impact Indian trade.

We have seen that recently the ship on which 17 Indian workers are onboard had been controlled by Iran’s revolutionary guards. This shows the control of Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. This will worsen the situation in the Middle East. 

The recent attack led to panic in the global market which saw seen certain crash. Even the Crypto market was down by about 8% decrement. The war will lead to a crash in the global market.

This was obvious because Iran is an Oil-rich country and any tensions in this region lead to an increase in oil and energy crises, this is evident from the Russia – Ukraine war.

Even the plan for India Middle East Europe Corridor will have a direct impact. India has investment plans and any tensions will lead to disruption of India’s balance of power.

Global Response:

As per the recent reports by American media there has been some drone attacks from Israel’s side on a nuclear research facility near Isfahan in Iran. But Iran denied the reports of attack from Israel’s side. More clarifications are awaited.

There was a sharp response from many world leaders towards the attack on Israel, but the stance of the U.S. matters a lot as it will decide the fate of the issue as of now.

There will be presidential elections in the U.S. this year, even it has to support Israel and Ukraine on two fronts and already its resources are being used. So any mistake will lead to the attraction of Russia into the war and will lead to a larger escalation.

Presently U.S., U.K., and Jordan have helped Israel intercept the attack which does not mean they will attack Iran. They are helping on the Defensive side only.

Both sides must resolve the issue diplomatically and other nations must provide common grounds for the talks and lead to calm down the tensions in the regions for humankind.

India’s Stance in the complete issue:

India has strategic ties with both the countries and India had a big investments in both the countries.

Iran serves the strategic position for the India’s trade route and its Chabahar port which is a joint project between India and Iran serves as India’s gateway for the middle-east trade. So it is a big investment for India.

Iranian oil reserves will also serve to fulfil the India’s energy demands and also its Uranium abundance will serve to meet the need of nuclear resources for India.

Now Israel is one of the largest defense partner and also India invest in Israel for the technological advanvancements. Even India’s investment in agriculture and water technology along with Israel is crutial. Defence partnership of India and Israel is one of the important investment of India.

So it is obvious that India should take neutral stance so that relation between both the countries will remain calm and also the region will remain tension free.